To be sure, data points from only two years shouldn’t make us rush to believe that world oil is undergoing a shale gas type surge in productive capacity. In fact, it’s not. Analysis strongly suggests that the production surge in 2009 and 2010 will not repeat; in other words, non-OPEC oil output is not expected to grow in 2011 and the foreseeable future. So, against a backdrop of resurgent demand from emerging economies that means that a bias to higher oil prices over the next 12 to 24 months remains (notwithstanding another economic meltdown).
Yet those in the oil business shouldn’t be too complacent in recognizing the significance of the mini-tsunami of non-OPEC oil that hit the markets in 2009, at the same time as the financial crisis washed out the demand side. In fact, it was OPEC that took excess barrels off the market, sacrificing market share, which is why the cartel’s collective spare productive capacity tripled in the past two years, going from 2.0 MMB/d to 6.0 MMB/d.
Looking back five years ago, the opening words to my book, A Thousand Barrels a Second, were, “We are not running out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil.” Implicit in these words were that price of this vital commodity had to rise up from the then $30.00/B, because of looming scarcity in the face of rising demand.
Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Possible+OPEC+supply+surge+pressure+prices/3037511/story.html#ixzz0oIedA3fc
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