The 'Middle Wife' by an Anonymous 2nd grade teacher .
I've been teaching now for about fifteen years. I have two kids myself, but the best birth story I know is the one I saw in my own second grade classroom a few years back.
When I was a kid, I loved show-and-tell. So I always have a few sessions with my students. It helps them get over shyness and usually, show-and-tell is pretty tame. Kids bring in pet turtles, model airplanes, pictures of fish they catch, stuff like that. And I never, ever place any boundaries or limitations on them. If they want to lug it in to school and talk about it, they're welcome.
Well, one day this little girl, Erica, a very bright, very outgoing kid, takes her turn and waddles up to the front of the class with a pillow stuffed under her sweater.
She holds up a snapshot of an infant. 'This is Luke, my baby brother, and I'm going to tell you about his birthday.'
'First, Mom and Dad made him as a symbol of their love, and then Dad put a seed in my Mom's stomach, and Luke grew in there. He ate for nine months through an umbrella cord.'
(She's standing there with her hands on the pillow, and I'm trying not to laugh and wishing I had my camcorder with me. The kids are watching her in amazement.)
'Then, about two Saturdays ago, my Mom starts saying and going, 'Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh!' Erica puts a hand behind her back and groans.
'She walked around the house for, like an hour, 'Oh, oh, oh!' (Now this kid is doing an hysterical duck walk and groaning.)
'My Dad called the middle wife. She delivers babies, but she doesn't have a sign on the car like the Domino's man. They got my Mom to lie down in
bed like this..' (Then Erica lies down with her back against the wall.)
'And then, pop! My Mom had this bag of water she kept in there in case he got thirsty, and it just blew up and spilled all over the bed, like psshhheew!' (This kid has her legs spread with her little hands miming water flowing away. It was too much!)
'Then the middle wife starts saying 'push, push,' and 'breathe, breathe.
They started counting, but never even got past ten. Then, all of a sudden, out comes my brother. He was covered in yucky stuff that they all said was from Mom's play-center, (placenta) so there must be a lot of toys inside there. When he got out, the middle wife spanked him for crawling up in there.'
Then Erica stood up, took a big theatrical bow and returned to her seat.
I'm sure I applauded the loudest. Ever since then, when it's show-and-tell day, I bring my camcorder, just in case another 'Middle Wife' comes along.
Selasa, 29 Juni 2010
Regain Benefits Typically Lost to LGBT Partners
Until LGBT marriages, domestic partnerships, and civil unions are recognized by the federal government, LGBT and alternative families will have to depend on a combination of a Secure Couple LLC ™ and supplementary legal documents
in order to achieve even a tiny percentage of the 1,300+ legal and financial benefits accessible to married couples.
Some of the benefits lost to same-sex couples:
1. No joint tax returns at the federal level, even if they filed joint returns at the state or local level.
2. For a typical couple, SSM partners will lose in excess of $8,000 per year in Social Security survivor benefits after the death of the higher earning spouse.
3. Lacking marriage, a couple requires several legal agreements to create even a few of the protections granted traditional married couples in the event of death of one partner. Specific tax benefits are denied to unmarried couples.
4. No right to petition for a foreign same-sex spouse - and his or her children that qualify - for Lawful Permanent Residence ("green card") status.
5. Federal law exempts from federal estate taxes and federal gift taxes for all property - currently $3.5 million - left to a surviving spouse. LGBT surviving partners receive no combined exemptions.
6. No automatic right under most state laws and regulations to make healthcare decisions on behalf of a partner in a medical emergency. The legal "next of kin" assumes these duties and makes decisions with or without the partner's consent.
7. Marriage is not a requirement for owning property together, but for married couples in nearly all situations, property will be jointly owned regardless of who paid for it. The exact reverse of this presumption applies to unmarried couples. In the absence of equitable ownership presumptions that married couples have the benefit of, an LLC can provide joint ownership of property and other assets and how those assets will be divided upon splitting up.
8. Certain business entities such as family limited partnerships are not available to LGBT couples.
9. When a heterosexual employee and his or her family receives health benefits by means of a job, the value of those benefits is tax-exempt. If an employee is able to obtain health benefits for a same-sex spouse or domestic partner, the federal government requires that the employee "spouse" report those same benefits as taxable income.
10. The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 permits individuals up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave to care for ailing spouses, or the children and parents of a spouse. Denied to an LGBT companion.
11. Can be denied the privilege to visit a partner in critical care/ICU. Incidents in some hospitals such as Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, have led to more enlightened visitation policies.
12. Families in which two same-sex partners are raising children often encounter legal obstacles because many courts are reluctant to structure legal families reflecting this reality. Many couples in same-sex relationships petition for second-parent adoptions which refers to a legal action taken by one partner to adopt the children (biological or adoptive) of the other partner.
13. No automatic inheritance in the absence of a will.
14. No survival or spousal remuneration for pensions, Social Security, Medicare, or annuities. Protections designed for one spouse’s necessary economic resources such as the ability to reside in the family home when the other spouse requires Medicaid long term nursing home care are lost.
15. In cases of wrongful death or significant injury, partners and children of partners have no standing to sue for damages.
16. In court, SSM partners cannot claim marital immunity from testifying against their partner.
17. Next of kin will have control over funeral and burial arrangements, not the same-sex partners.
18. No SSM benefits available to military families such as medical, dental, housing, educational assistance, vocational guidance, home loan guarantees, relocation assistance, housing allowances, survivors' benefits, and VA benefits.
19. No survivor's benefits for spouses of federal employees, including lost wages, workers' compensation, health insurance, and retirement benefits.
20. Lack of other state civil lawsuits including loss of consortium, crime victim recovery reimbursement, and domestic violence orders of protection.
Same-sex couples would be wise to seek advice from their attorneys in order to draft legal documents to duplicate as many benefits as possible that conventional married couples receive automatically. The 20 denied rights above are just the tip of the melting iceberg.
Documents you may wish to discuss with your lawyer include:
- Limited Liability Company for asset protection and distribution
- Durable Power of Attorney for Healthcare
- Co-Habitation Agreement
- Co-Parenting Agreement
- Simple Will
- any number of trusts for additional asset protection
Many states, including Florida, will acknowledge correctly drafted cohabitation agreements. A vital purpose for same-sex cohabitation agreements is that the central rationale cannot be to enforce a sexual arrangement. Moreover, sex cannot be offered in trade for a financial arrangement. Such agreements are void as against public policy.
Every situation is unique, but several of these documents are beneficial for male-female married couples as well. Guard you LGBT relationship with an LLC until and even after SSM discrimination ends.
LGBT and alternative families will have to rely on a mixture of a Secure Couple LLC ™ and other legal contracts to obtain even a tiny portion of the 1,300+ legal and financial benefits available to married couples.
Claim your free Secure Couple LLC ™ ebook and learn how to form a Limited Liability Company to announce your commitment, set up your joint finances, and protect your future pending the federal government and the several states get rid of marriage discrimination against LGBT couples and others who choose not to marry - http://securecouplellc.com/formscllc.pdf
===
Charles F. Lamm is a retired attorney now working with Secure Couple LLC - http://securecouplellc.com
Sabtu, 26 Juni 2010
Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello
Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello:
New Computer
"Put a monitor on each computer, set them side by side, turn both computers on, install Synergy (free!), and use one keyboard/mouse to control them both seamlessly.
You can thank me after you try it, heh.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : 6/26/10 8:47 PM
~
I'll second the vote for synergy.
Or, if you have vmware, you can make a 'copy' of your old computer and run it inside a virtual machine on your new desktop
(the converter may be available for free, and vmware player is also free - so it should only cost you time)
# posted by Blogger pdwalker : 6/26/10 8:59 PM"
New Computer
"Put a monitor on each computer, set them side by side, turn both computers on, install Synergy (free!), and use one keyboard/mouse to control them both seamlessly.
You can thank me after you try it, heh.
# posted by Anonymous Anonymous : 6/26/10 8:47 PM
~
I'll second the vote for synergy.
Or, if you have vmware, you can make a 'copy' of your old computer and run it inside a virtual machine on your new desktop
(the converter may be available for free, and vmware player is also free - so it should only cost you time)
# posted by Blogger pdwalker : 6/26/10 8:59 PM"
Jumat, 25 Juni 2010
http://www.keeskennis.blogspot.com/
http://www.keeskennis.blogspot.com/
So the witch, slowly enters the front door of a sex shop. Obviously very unstable on her feet, she wobbles the few feet across the store to the counter. Finally arriving at the counter and grabbing it for support, stuttering she asks the sales clerk, "Dooo Youuuu have dilllldosss?"
The clerk, politely trying not to burst out laughing, replies, "Yes we do have dildos. Actually we carry many different models."
The witch then asks: "Doooo youuuu carrryy AAA pppinkk onnees, Tttenn inchessss lllong aaandd aabboutt ttwoo inchesss ththiickk... aaand rrunns by bbaatteries?"
The clerk responds, "Yes we do."
"Ddddooo yyoooouuuu kknnnoooww hhhowww tttooo ttturrrnnn ttthe ssunoooffabbitch offfff?"
So the witch, slowly enters the front door of a sex shop. Obviously very unstable on her feet, she wobbles the few feet across the store to the counter. Finally arriving at the counter and grabbing it for support, stuttering she asks the sales clerk, "Dooo Youuuu have dilllldosss?"
The clerk, politely trying not to burst out laughing, replies, "Yes we do have dildos. Actually we carry many different models."
The witch then asks: "Doooo youuuu carrryy AAA pppinkk onnees, Tttenn inchessss lllong aaandd aabboutt ttwoo inchesss ththiickk... aaand rrunns by bbaatteries?"
The clerk responds, "Yes we do."
"Ddddooo yyoooouuuu kknnnoooww hhhowww tttooo ttturrrnnn ttthe ssunoooffabbitch offfff?"
Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello
Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello: "Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end."
Capture Rights Usually Lost to LGBT Couples
Until same-sex marriages, domestic partnerships, and civil unions are recognized by the federal government, same-sex and alternative families will have to rely on a combination of a Secure Couple LLC ™ and supplementary legal documents in order to obtain even a tiny portion of the 1,300+ legal and financial benefits presented to married couples.
A few of the benefits denied:
1. No joint filing of tax returns at the federal level, though they filed joint returns at the state level.
2. Loss of more than $8,000 each year on average in Social Security benefits if the higher income spouse dies first.
3. No lump sum death benefits - civilian or military - to help with funeral costs.
4. Cannot file an immigration petition for a foreign-born spouse even if the SSM was lawful in your spouse's native country, for instance, Canada or Denmark.
5. Not able to take advantage of joint husband-wife gift and estate tax exemptions.
6. No automatic right exists for same-sex couples to make medical or emergency decisions on behalf of their partner. By means of a legally binding durable power of attorney for healthcare, the trusted partner you name will be lawfully allowed to take care of important issues for you -- for instance, directing your medical care -- if you are unable to do so yourself. Married couples are given this right automatically in all states.
7. Marriage is not a requirement for owning property together, but for married couples in most situations, property will be jointly owned regardless of who paid for it. The exact reverse of this presumption applies to unmarried couples. In the absence of equitable ownership presumptions that married couples have the benefit of, an LLC can grant joint ownership of property and other resources and how those assets will be divided upon separation.
8. Several business entities such as family limited partnerships are not open to LGBT couples.
9. When a heterosexual employee and his or her family receives health benefits through a job, the cost of those benefits is tax-exempt. If an employee is allowed to obtain health benefits for a same-sex spouse or domestic partner, the federal government demands that the employee "spouse" report those same benefits as taxable income.
10. The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 provides individuals up to 12 weeks of unpaid time off to look after ill spouses, or the children and parents of a spouse. Denied to an LGBT companion.
11. Visiting a gravely ill partner in ICU can be denied in 28 states. The remaining 22 states have passed laws that prohibit discrimination based on an individual's sexual orientation in "public accommodations", and 14 of those also ban discrimination founded on gender identity. Public accommodations include health care services by physicians, hospitals, and other health care providers.
12. For most same-sex couples, joint or second parent adoption is not permitted. Some states such as Florida completely bar same-sex partners from adopting.
13. Same-sex partners do not inherit in the absense of will, as do surviving spouses when their partners die intestate.
14. No death or spousal settlements for pensions, Social Security, Medicare, or annuities. Protections intended for one spouse’s essential financial resources such as the ability to stay in the family residence when the other partner requires Medicaid long term nursing home care are denied.
15. In cases of wrongful death or significant injury, partners and children of partners have no standing to file a lawsuit in state court for damages.
16. Cannot claim certain court immunities such as the right not to bear witness against a spouse.
17. No right to make decisions about final arrangements for a deceased partner, such as burial versus cremation, or where the deceased will be laid to rest.
18. No SSM benefits offered to military families such as medical, dental, housing, educational aid, vocational training, home mortgage guarantees, relocation assistance, housing allowances, survivors' benefits, and VA benefits.
19. Because of DOMA, the federal government denies rights, protections, benefits, and responsibilities to same-sex married couples in all federal programs that take account of marital status.
20. Lack of other state civil causes of action including loss of consortium, crime victim recovery reimbursement, and domestic violence protection orders.
Same-sex couples would be wise to seek advice from their attorneys to prepare legal documents to recover as many benefits as possible that traditional married couples receive automatically. The 20 denied rights above are simply the tip of the melting iceberg.
Documents you may wish to discuss with your attorney and financial advisor include:
- Limited Liability Company for asset protection and distribution
- Durable Power of Attorney for Healthcare
- Co-Habitation Agreement
- Co-Parenting Agreement
- Simple Will
- any number of trusts for additional asset protection
Many states, including Florida, will acknowledge properly written cohabitation agreements. A vital point for same-sex cohabitation agreements is that the central rationale cannot be to enforce a sexual arrangement. In addition, sex cannot be offered in trade for a financial arrangement. These kinds of contracts are void as against public policy.
Each situation is unique, but many of these documents are important for male-female married couples as well. Guard you LGBT relationship with an LLC until and even after SSM discrimination ends.
LGBT and unconventional families will have to rely on a mixture of a Secure Couple LLC ™ and other legal agreements to gain even a small portion of the 1,300+ legal and economic benefits available to married couples.
Retrieve your free Secure Couple LLC ™ ebook and learn how to form a Limited Liability Company to publicize your commitment, set up your joint finances, and guard your future pending the federal government and the several states eliminate marriage discrimination against LGBT couples and others who choose not to marry - http://securecouplellc.com/formscllc.pdf
===
Charles F. Lamm is a retired attorney now working with Secure Couple LLC - http://securecouplellc.com
A few of the benefits denied:
1. No joint filing of tax returns at the federal level, though they filed joint returns at the state level.
2. Loss of more than $8,000 each year on average in Social Security benefits if the higher income spouse dies first.
3. No lump sum death benefits - civilian or military - to help with funeral costs.
4. Cannot file an immigration petition for a foreign-born spouse even if the SSM was lawful in your spouse's native country, for instance, Canada or Denmark.
5. Not able to take advantage of joint husband-wife gift and estate tax exemptions.
6. No automatic right exists for same-sex couples to make medical or emergency decisions on behalf of their partner. By means of a legally binding durable power of attorney for healthcare, the trusted partner you name will be lawfully allowed to take care of important issues for you -- for instance, directing your medical care -- if you are unable to do so yourself. Married couples are given this right automatically in all states.
7. Marriage is not a requirement for owning property together, but for married couples in most situations, property will be jointly owned regardless of who paid for it. The exact reverse of this presumption applies to unmarried couples. In the absence of equitable ownership presumptions that married couples have the benefit of, an LLC can grant joint ownership of property and other resources and how those assets will be divided upon separation.
8. Several business entities such as family limited partnerships are not open to LGBT couples.
9. When a heterosexual employee and his or her family receives health benefits through a job, the cost of those benefits is tax-exempt. If an employee is allowed to obtain health benefits for a same-sex spouse or domestic partner, the federal government demands that the employee "spouse" report those same benefits as taxable income.
10. The Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993 provides individuals up to 12 weeks of unpaid time off to look after ill spouses, or the children and parents of a spouse. Denied to an LGBT companion.
11. Visiting a gravely ill partner in ICU can be denied in 28 states. The remaining 22 states have passed laws that prohibit discrimination based on an individual's sexual orientation in "public accommodations", and 14 of those also ban discrimination founded on gender identity. Public accommodations include health care services by physicians, hospitals, and other health care providers.
12. For most same-sex couples, joint or second parent adoption is not permitted. Some states such as Florida completely bar same-sex partners from adopting.
13. Same-sex partners do not inherit in the absense of will, as do surviving spouses when their partners die intestate.
14. No death or spousal settlements for pensions, Social Security, Medicare, or annuities. Protections intended for one spouse’s essential financial resources such as the ability to stay in the family residence when the other partner requires Medicaid long term nursing home care are denied.
15. In cases of wrongful death or significant injury, partners and children of partners have no standing to file a lawsuit in state court for damages.
16. Cannot claim certain court immunities such as the right not to bear witness against a spouse.
17. No right to make decisions about final arrangements for a deceased partner, such as burial versus cremation, or where the deceased will be laid to rest.
18. No SSM benefits offered to military families such as medical, dental, housing, educational aid, vocational training, home mortgage guarantees, relocation assistance, housing allowances, survivors' benefits, and VA benefits.
19. Because of DOMA, the federal government denies rights, protections, benefits, and responsibilities to same-sex married couples in all federal programs that take account of marital status.
20. Lack of other state civil causes of action including loss of consortium, crime victim recovery reimbursement, and domestic violence protection orders.
Same-sex couples would be wise to seek advice from their attorneys to prepare legal documents to recover as many benefits as possible that traditional married couples receive automatically. The 20 denied rights above are simply the tip of the melting iceberg.
Documents you may wish to discuss with your attorney and financial advisor include:
- Limited Liability Company for asset protection and distribution
- Durable Power of Attorney for Healthcare
- Co-Habitation Agreement
- Co-Parenting Agreement
- Simple Will
- any number of trusts for additional asset protection
Many states, including Florida, will acknowledge properly written cohabitation agreements. A vital point for same-sex cohabitation agreements is that the central rationale cannot be to enforce a sexual arrangement. In addition, sex cannot be offered in trade for a financial arrangement. These kinds of contracts are void as against public policy.
Each situation is unique, but many of these documents are important for male-female married couples as well. Guard you LGBT relationship with an LLC until and even after SSM discrimination ends.
LGBT and unconventional families will have to rely on a mixture of a Secure Couple LLC ™ and other legal agreements to gain even a small portion of the 1,300+ legal and economic benefits available to married couples.
Retrieve your free Secure Couple LLC ™ ebook and learn how to form a Limited Liability Company to publicize your commitment, set up your joint finances, and guard your future pending the federal government and the several states eliminate marriage discrimination against LGBT couples and others who choose not to marry - http://securecouplellc.com/formscllc.pdf
===
Charles F. Lamm is a retired attorney now working with Secure Couple LLC - http://securecouplellc.com
Selasa, 22 Juni 2010
Launching Secure Couple LLC ™
We will be launching Secure Couple LLC ™ - an LLC for couples who cannot marry - in the next few days.
Get an advance look:
Senin, 21 Juni 2010
Sabtu, 19 Juni 2010
Velociworld: Comment on A Maudlin Aside
Velociworld: Comment on A Maudlin Aside: "'There ain't nothing we can do as individuals that the government can't do more poorly, more insensitively, and more inefficiently.
It's the American Way.'
Au contraire, mon fr�re. It's not just the American Way, it's the Governemnt Way, irrespective of nationality."
It's the American Way.'
Au contraire, mon fr�re. It's not just the American Way, it's the Governemnt Way, irrespective of nationality."
The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: June 19, 2010
The Oil Drum | Drumbeat: June 19, 2010: "The mature offshore Cantarell fields continued to decline, producing 501,000 barrels per day in the June 1-13 period compared with 511,000 in the May 1-30 period, according to the hydrocarbons commission.
...Pemex has seen oil production decline from a peak of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2004, mostly as the decades-long 'easy oil' from Cantarell has been difficult to replace."
...Pemex has seen oil production decline from a peak of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2004, mostly as the decades-long 'easy oil' from Cantarell has been difficult to replace."
Jumat, 18 Juni 2010
Vinegar and Honey
Vinegar and Honey: "When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is to co-operate with evil, and in some small way to become evil oneself. One's standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control. ~Theodore Dalrymple"
Rabu, 16 Juni 2010
A Time For Choosing
A Time For Choosing
Robert Bryce, writing for Forbes magazine gives us all a serious dose of reality:
The Real Problem With Renewables
The growing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has, predictably, resulted in a new chorus of voices calling for increased use of renewable energy sources. But over the past five decades renewables have actually been losing market share.
In 1949 nearly 91% of America’s total primary energy came from coal, oil, and natural gas. The balance came from renewables, with hydropower being a dominant contributor. By 2008 the market share for coal, oil and natural gas, along with nuclear, had grown to 92.5% of total primary energy in the U.S. with the remainder coming from renewables.
Given the raging hype over renewable energy sources, those numbers, which are readily available from the Energy Information Administration, are remarkable. Over the past six decades tens of billions of dollars have been spent on renewable and alternative energy schemes such as wind energy, solar energy, corn and other biofuels, and electric cars. All have aimed at cutting our hydrocarbon use. And yet only nuclear power, which went from zero to about 8.5% of the U.S. primary energy over that time frame, has managed to steal significant market share from coal, oil and natural gas.
In other words, despite these huge investments, renewables’ share of the energy market has been shrinking. What’s happening? While conspiracy theorists may want to believe that Big Oil, Big Coal and Big Nuclear are stifling the growth of renewables, the simple truth is that coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear can satisfy the Four Imperatives: power density, energy density, cost and scale.
The Four Imperatives provide a simplified way to analyze the physics and math that rule our energy and its delivery, the latter better known as power. Before going further we must differentiate between energy and power. If you recall your high school physics, the definitions are straightforward: Energy is the ability to do work; power is the rate at which work gets done. Put another way, energy is an amount; power is a rate. And rates are more telling than amounts.
The first of the Four Imperatives, power density, is the most telling of the rates. Power density refers to the energy flow that can be harnessed from a given unit of volume, area or mass. Common metrics of power density include: horsepower per cubic inch, watts per square meter and watts per kilogram. And given the current infatuation with renewable energy sources like wind and solar, the essential metric for power density is watts per square meter (W/m2), which shows how much power can be derived from a given piece of real estate. It is also the metric that exposes the inherent weakness of sources like corn ethanol, wind energy and solar energy. If a source has low power density, then it will likely require too much real estate, material or space to provide the power that we demand at prices we can afford or in the vast quantities that the world needs.
The production of corn ethanol is a loser for many reasons. Just a quick glance at corn ethanol’s power density–just 0.05 W/m2–shows why the fuel makes no sense from a physics standpoint. Corn ethanol’s low power density is inherent in all biomass, which leads us to the second of the Four Imperatives. Energy density refers to the quantity of energy that can be contained in a given unit of volume, area, or mass. And the low energy density of biomass–corn, switchgrass, wood, etc.–makes it difficult to produce sufficient amounts of energy without occupying huge swaths of land.
Now let’s consider the power density of wind energy, which is about 1.2 W/m2, and solar photovoltaic, which can produce about 6.7 W/m2. Both sources are superior to corn ethanol (nearly everything is), but they are incurably intermittent, which makes them of marginal value in a world that demands always-available power. Nor can they compare to the power density of sources like natural gas, oil and nuclear. For instance, a marginal natural gas well, producing 60,000 cubic feet per day, has a power density of about 28 W/m2. An oil well, producing 10 barrels per day, has a power density of about 27 W/m2. Meanwhile, a nuclear power plant like the South Texas Project–even if you include the entire 19 square-mile tract upon which the project is sited–produces about 56 W/m2.
Simple math shows that a marginal gas or oil well has a power density at least 22 times that of a wind turbine while a nuclear power plant has a power density that is more than 8 times that of a solar photovoltaic facility. Those numbers explain why power density matters so much: if you start with a source that has low power density, you have to compensate for that low density by utilizing more resources such as land, steel, and ultra-long transmission lines. Those additional inputs then reduce the project’s economic viability and its ability to scale.
That can be understood by comparing the land use needs of a nuclear plant with those of a wind energy project or a corn ethanol operation. The two reactors at the South Texas Project produce 2,700 megawatts of power. The plant covers about 19 square miles, an area slightly smaller than the island of Manhattan. To match that output using wind energy, you’d need a land area nearly the size of Rhode Island. Matching that power output with corn ethanol would require intensive farming on more than 21,000 square miles, an area nearly the size of West Virginia.
Environmental groups and many politicians in Washington insist that the U.S. must lead the effort to develop renewable energy sources, with wind, solar and biomass being the lead components. But doing so will mean replacing high-power-density sources that are reliable and low cost with low-power-density sources that are highly variable and high cost.
The ugly oil spill in the Gulf may continue growing in size. In response the Obama administration may approve more projects like Cape Wind, the controversial offshore wind energy project in Massachusetts. And Congress may pass another energy bill that gives yet more mandates and subsidies for renewables, but try as it might, Congress cannot repeal the laws of physics.
Robert Bryce is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. His newest book, Power Hungry: The Myths of “Green” Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future, was released last month.
Look, I’m an “all of the above” kind of guy on energy. I truly believe that we will always need oil and natural gas as our primary energy source. That’s why I support Sarah Palin and her efforts so vigorously. She understands that we need oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as nuclear energy and renewables.
It’s criminal that France gets over 75 percent of it’s electricity from nuclear powered generation plants, and we don’t. FRANCE!
From the World Nuclear Association:
France derives over 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy. This is due to a long-standing policy based on energy security.
France is the world’s largest net exporter of electricity due to its very low cost of generation, and gains over EUR 3 billion per year from this.
France has been very active in developing nuclear technology. Reactors and fuel products and services are a major export.
It is building its first Generation III reactor and planning a second.
You can read more about what can only be described as an incredible success story here.
Frankly, this is embarrassing to no end. How in the hell can America, the greatest nation the world has ever known, sit back and let FRANCE lead the world on nuclear energy production?!?
The environmental moon-bats go crazy when you mention nuclear as a source of energy, but America has had nuclear powered submarines for almost 60 years and nuclear powered aircraft carriers for almost 50 years without incident.
The United States launched the USS Nautilus, the first nuclear submarine, in 1954. Nautilus could circle the world underwater for up to four months without resurfacing.
USS Enterprise (CVN-65): 93,500-ton nuclear-powered supercarrier commissioned in 1961. First nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Scheduled for decommissioning in 2013, may be extended to 2014-2015.
My thinking is a nuclear power plant on the ground is a heck of a lot safer than one in combat conditions, and yet, here we are.
Why aren’t we building nuclear plants at the rate Starbucks was throwing up coffee shops at one point?
Stupidity!
I think Cracked Magazine (of all places) got it absolutely right in this article:
The 5 Most Ridiculously Over-Hyped Health Scares of All Time
# 5 Three Mile Island
On March 28, 1979, what should have been a minor plumbing problem somehow escalated into a reactor fuel meltdown at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station in Pennsylvania. Within five days, the Governor had ordered the evacuation of all children and pregnant women, within a five-mile radius of the area. Since that time, the name Three Mile Island has been synonymous with nuclear disaster. Hooters even named one of their hottest (and most delicious) wing sauces after it!
But unlike other nuclear disasters, Chernobyl for example, which caused at least 4,000 eventual deaths, Three Mile Island was responsible for a whopping zero fatalities. In fact, there weren’t even any injuries. Later tests revealed that the level of radiation people were exposed to in the five-mile radius was equivalent to the amount of radiation a person is exposed to while flying on a commercial airliner. In other words, the danger was nil.
So why all the ruckus? Much like that restraining order Catherine Zeta-Jones slapped us with a few years back, we blame Michael Douglas for this.
Just 12 days prior to the incident at TMI, The China Syndrome premiered. In the film, Michael Douglas plays a television news reporter who surreptitiously films a nuclear power plant crew as a near meltdown is taking place. As luck would have it, the events depicted in the movie almost perfectly mirrored what occurred at TMI. With the movie stirring public debate about the safety of nuclear power, there was no way the incident at TMI occurring just days later would do anything less than scare the ever-loving crap out of people. And that’s exactly what it did.
In 1979, Three Mile Island killed fewer people than ….
ROBOTS ATTACKS!
Ford factory worker Robert Williams was killed when a robot hit him in the head, thus outranking Three Mile Island’s death toll, 1-0.
This is a great piece on a lot of stupidity by politicians, environmentalists, and so on. You can read about all 5 here, though I must throw out a language warning for our more genteel readers.
Look, Obama is asking the wrong question. The question is not why we can’t get off of oil. Nope, the real question Obama and the nation should be asking is:
If we can put a man on the moon, why can’t we beat the French and get more than 75 percent of our electricity from nuclear?
Robert Bryce, writing for Forbes magazine gives us all a serious dose of reality:
The Real Problem With Renewables
The growing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has, predictably, resulted in a new chorus of voices calling for increased use of renewable energy sources. But over the past five decades renewables have actually been losing market share.
In 1949 nearly 91% of America’s total primary energy came from coal, oil, and natural gas. The balance came from renewables, with hydropower being a dominant contributor. By 2008 the market share for coal, oil and natural gas, along with nuclear, had grown to 92.5% of total primary energy in the U.S. with the remainder coming from renewables.
Given the raging hype over renewable energy sources, those numbers, which are readily available from the Energy Information Administration, are remarkable. Over the past six decades tens of billions of dollars have been spent on renewable and alternative energy schemes such as wind energy, solar energy, corn and other biofuels, and electric cars. All have aimed at cutting our hydrocarbon use. And yet only nuclear power, which went from zero to about 8.5% of the U.S. primary energy over that time frame, has managed to steal significant market share from coal, oil and natural gas.
In other words, despite these huge investments, renewables’ share of the energy market has been shrinking. What’s happening? While conspiracy theorists may want to believe that Big Oil, Big Coal and Big Nuclear are stifling the growth of renewables, the simple truth is that coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear can satisfy the Four Imperatives: power density, energy density, cost and scale.
The Four Imperatives provide a simplified way to analyze the physics and math that rule our energy and its delivery, the latter better known as power. Before going further we must differentiate between energy and power. If you recall your high school physics, the definitions are straightforward: Energy is the ability to do work; power is the rate at which work gets done. Put another way, energy is an amount; power is a rate. And rates are more telling than amounts.
The first of the Four Imperatives, power density, is the most telling of the rates. Power density refers to the energy flow that can be harnessed from a given unit of volume, area or mass. Common metrics of power density include: horsepower per cubic inch, watts per square meter and watts per kilogram. And given the current infatuation with renewable energy sources like wind and solar, the essential metric for power density is watts per square meter (W/m2), which shows how much power can be derived from a given piece of real estate. It is also the metric that exposes the inherent weakness of sources like corn ethanol, wind energy and solar energy. If a source has low power density, then it will likely require too much real estate, material or space to provide the power that we demand at prices we can afford or in the vast quantities that the world needs.
The production of corn ethanol is a loser for many reasons. Just a quick glance at corn ethanol’s power density–just 0.05 W/m2–shows why the fuel makes no sense from a physics standpoint. Corn ethanol’s low power density is inherent in all biomass, which leads us to the second of the Four Imperatives. Energy density refers to the quantity of energy that can be contained in a given unit of volume, area, or mass. And the low energy density of biomass–corn, switchgrass, wood, etc.–makes it difficult to produce sufficient amounts of energy without occupying huge swaths of land.
Now let’s consider the power density of wind energy, which is about 1.2 W/m2, and solar photovoltaic, which can produce about 6.7 W/m2. Both sources are superior to corn ethanol (nearly everything is), but they are incurably intermittent, which makes them of marginal value in a world that demands always-available power. Nor can they compare to the power density of sources like natural gas, oil and nuclear. For instance, a marginal natural gas well, producing 60,000 cubic feet per day, has a power density of about 28 W/m2. An oil well, producing 10 barrels per day, has a power density of about 27 W/m2. Meanwhile, a nuclear power plant like the South Texas Project–even if you include the entire 19 square-mile tract upon which the project is sited–produces about 56 W/m2.
Simple math shows that a marginal gas or oil well has a power density at least 22 times that of a wind turbine while a nuclear power plant has a power density that is more than 8 times that of a solar photovoltaic facility. Those numbers explain why power density matters so much: if you start with a source that has low power density, you have to compensate for that low density by utilizing more resources such as land, steel, and ultra-long transmission lines. Those additional inputs then reduce the project’s economic viability and its ability to scale.
That can be understood by comparing the land use needs of a nuclear plant with those of a wind energy project or a corn ethanol operation. The two reactors at the South Texas Project produce 2,700 megawatts of power. The plant covers about 19 square miles, an area slightly smaller than the island of Manhattan. To match that output using wind energy, you’d need a land area nearly the size of Rhode Island. Matching that power output with corn ethanol would require intensive farming on more than 21,000 square miles, an area nearly the size of West Virginia.
Environmental groups and many politicians in Washington insist that the U.S. must lead the effort to develop renewable energy sources, with wind, solar and biomass being the lead components. But doing so will mean replacing high-power-density sources that are reliable and low cost with low-power-density sources that are highly variable and high cost.
The ugly oil spill in the Gulf may continue growing in size. In response the Obama administration may approve more projects like Cape Wind, the controversial offshore wind energy project in Massachusetts. And Congress may pass another energy bill that gives yet more mandates and subsidies for renewables, but try as it might, Congress cannot repeal the laws of physics.
Robert Bryce is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. His newest book, Power Hungry: The Myths of “Green” Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future, was released last month.
Look, I’m an “all of the above” kind of guy on energy. I truly believe that we will always need oil and natural gas as our primary energy source. That’s why I support Sarah Palin and her efforts so vigorously. She understands that we need oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as nuclear energy and renewables.
It’s criminal that France gets over 75 percent of it’s electricity from nuclear powered generation plants, and we don’t. FRANCE!
From the World Nuclear Association:
France derives over 75% of its electricity from nuclear energy. This is due to a long-standing policy based on energy security.
France is the world’s largest net exporter of electricity due to its very low cost of generation, and gains over EUR 3 billion per year from this.
France has been very active in developing nuclear technology. Reactors and fuel products and services are a major export.
It is building its first Generation III reactor and planning a second.
You can read more about what can only be described as an incredible success story here.
Frankly, this is embarrassing to no end. How in the hell can America, the greatest nation the world has ever known, sit back and let FRANCE lead the world on nuclear energy production?!?
The environmental moon-bats go crazy when you mention nuclear as a source of energy, but America has had nuclear powered submarines for almost 60 years and nuclear powered aircraft carriers for almost 50 years without incident.
The United States launched the USS Nautilus, the first nuclear submarine, in 1954. Nautilus could circle the world underwater for up to four months without resurfacing.
USS Enterprise (CVN-65): 93,500-ton nuclear-powered supercarrier commissioned in 1961. First nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Scheduled for decommissioning in 2013, may be extended to 2014-2015.
My thinking is a nuclear power plant on the ground is a heck of a lot safer than one in combat conditions, and yet, here we are.
Why aren’t we building nuclear plants at the rate Starbucks was throwing up coffee shops at one point?
Stupidity!
I think Cracked Magazine (of all places) got it absolutely right in this article:
The 5 Most Ridiculously Over-Hyped Health Scares of All Time
# 5 Three Mile Island
On March 28, 1979, what should have been a minor plumbing problem somehow escalated into a reactor fuel meltdown at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station in Pennsylvania. Within five days, the Governor had ordered the evacuation of all children and pregnant women, within a five-mile radius of the area. Since that time, the name Three Mile Island has been synonymous with nuclear disaster. Hooters even named one of their hottest (and most delicious) wing sauces after it!
But unlike other nuclear disasters, Chernobyl for example, which caused at least 4,000 eventual deaths, Three Mile Island was responsible for a whopping zero fatalities. In fact, there weren’t even any injuries. Later tests revealed that the level of radiation people were exposed to in the five-mile radius was equivalent to the amount of radiation a person is exposed to while flying on a commercial airliner. In other words, the danger was nil.
So why all the ruckus? Much like that restraining order Catherine Zeta-Jones slapped us with a few years back, we blame Michael Douglas for this.
Just 12 days prior to the incident at TMI, The China Syndrome premiered. In the film, Michael Douglas plays a television news reporter who surreptitiously films a nuclear power plant crew as a near meltdown is taking place. As luck would have it, the events depicted in the movie almost perfectly mirrored what occurred at TMI. With the movie stirring public debate about the safety of nuclear power, there was no way the incident at TMI occurring just days later would do anything less than scare the ever-loving crap out of people. And that’s exactly what it did.
In 1979, Three Mile Island killed fewer people than ….
ROBOTS ATTACKS!
Ford factory worker Robert Williams was killed when a robot hit him in the head, thus outranking Three Mile Island’s death toll, 1-0.
This is a great piece on a lot of stupidity by politicians, environmentalists, and so on. You can read about all 5 here, though I must throw out a language warning for our more genteel readers.
Look, Obama is asking the wrong question. The question is not why we can’t get off of oil. Nope, the real question Obama and the nation should be asking is:
If we can put a man on the moon, why can’t we beat the French and get more than 75 percent of our electricity from nuclear?
Grouchy Old Cripple
Grouchy Old Cripple
joke
Jimmah Carter joke updated to Obumfuck.
Why does JHE always lay on the bottom during sex?
Because all he knows how to do is fuck up.
joke
Jimmah Carter joke updated to Obumfuck.
Why does JHE always lay on the bottom during sex?
Because all he knows how to do is fuck up.
The Oil Drum | BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Why the Flow Rates are Increasing and Open Thread 2
The Oil Drum | BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Why the Flow Rates are Increasing and Open Thread 2
For the Rock's of the world who don't have time to read the docs...
Fracture Zone Measured Depth 18305.0 ft
Fracture Zone Gradient 0.779 psi/ft
Fracture Zone Density 15.00 Ib/gal
Fracture Zone Pressure 14255 psi
Reservoir Measured Depth 18200.0 ft
Reservoir Pore Pressure 13197 psi
Reservoir Zone Gradient 0.726 psi/ft
Reservoir Zone Density 13.97 Ib/gal
Back Pressure 0 psi
Height - Mud Line to Mean Sea Level 4992.0 ft
Height - Mean Sea Level to Rotary Kelly Bushing 75.0 ft
Sea Water Density 8.54 Ib/gal
Returns To Surface
Simulator Volume Increment 5.00 bbl
Surface Iron Displacement 0.41 bbl
Shoe Track Length 189.0 ft
Additional Pressure to Seat Plug 500 psi
Eccentricity Enhanced Calculations No
Erodibility Enhanced Calculations Yes
Mud Erodibility Measured Depth 17168.0 ft
Mud Erodibility Number 20.69
Mud Required Shear Stress 29.00 Ibf/(100*ft2)
Most of the hole is 'relatively' straight (<1>
The Oil Drum | BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Why the Flow Rates are Increasing and Open Thread 2
The Oil Drum | BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Why the Flow Rates are Increasing and Open Thread 2
Hillside rill channels formed as initially diffuse rainwater water flow concentrates and erodes channels 
Simplified change in production from a well with the sand being produced (upper curve) relative to conventional flow (lower curve). (The curves have been smoothed and only a sample of the “noisy” data is shown). Government of Alberta CHOPS Report 
Pressures along the BOP on May 25th (DOE ) 
And this was the cut after a single pass, we were cutting about 18 inches deep on a cut (rock and cement cut a lot easier than metal – though we accidentally ran over a couple of those bolts and cut them right off).
Dolomite and chert cut with an ASJ in the walls of the Omnimax Theater under the Arch in St Louis. (Its all hidden behind the concrete wall now).
BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Why the Flow Rates are Increasing and Open Thread 2
Posted by Heading Out on June 16, 2010 - 10:45am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: bp, deepwater horizon, oil spill [list all tags]
Because of the large number of comments, this is another copy of last night's post.
Tonight [Now, last night] the President will talk to the nation about the oil disaster that has been going on in the Gulf of Mexico for over a month. That will likely be the news story of the night, followed by the answers to the five questions that lawmakers have of BP. By that time I will also be starting a daily visit to the National Hurricane Center to see if there are any signs of coming problems. All of which being said, now might be a good time to talk about erosion, how it is changing the Deepwater Horizon well conditions, and why precautions about the flow increasing are probably wise. And I am going to recap bits of an old Tech Talk, as I do so. (It’s partly why they are there.)
To begin with a simple point – fluid (oil and gas) will only move from one place to another if something is pushing it. (Newton’s first law). For the fluid in the reservoir under the Gulf, this force pushing the oil out is the difference in pressure between the oil in the rock, and the pressure in the well. The pressure of the oil in the rock is 12,000 psi. When the well was drilled the pressure of the mud that filled the well was over 13,000 psi and no oil moved into the well. Just before the disaster the fluid in the well was changed from mud to seawater. This lowered the pressure of the fluid in the well below that of the fluid in the rock, a differential pressure now existed, and where there was a passage through which the oil and gas could flow, and they did. The question has always been – how much?
Gas flows more easily through cracks than oil, and the disaster was first evident when leaking gas reached the drilling rig, and then ignited. The BOP then, at least partially, functioned. After the rig sank, the riser also sank, bending the pipe just above the BOP. At that time there were reports that a Coast Guard ROV examined the underwater assembly and did not see any obvious oil leaks. A couple of days later the flow was suggested at about 1,000 bd, and this then escalated to 5,000 bd. As cameras began to publicly monitor the outlet of the riser the estimates started to grow, but a not-well-publicized effort measured the flow out of the riser, and found that it was around 8,000 bd, with allowance for leaks, the overall flow was estimated to be perhaps 12,000 bd. Once the broken part of the riser was removed and a cap placed over the well, a significant portion of the escaping oil was captured and could then be measured as it flowed into the surface vessel recovering it. Those values are currently at around 15,500 bd. BP is currently planning on additional capture this week of up to another 10,000 bd, and preparing for a worst case scenario with a flow rate of 80,000 bd. These numbers vary a lot, and yet they could all be correct.
Why? Well, its called erosion, and simply put, the oil and gas that are flowing out of the rock are bringing small amounts of that rock (in the form of sand) out with them. Rocks that contain lots of oil are not that strong and are easily worn away by the flow of fluid through them.
Let me make an analogy with soil. If I make a hill of soil, and leave it sit for a while there will be a number of rainstorms fall on the soil. Initially the surface will all erode relatively evenly under the diffused flow after the rain, but very quickly weaker parts of the soil will be removed faster and instead of a smooth surface, the soil will be selectively eroded and channels or rills will start to form on the surface.
These are larger than the passageways around the individual grains of soil, and so it is easier for the water to flow in these channels, and so more water collects in them and moves through them. As it does, because the fluid can easily get around the soil particles, and this was a weaker area already, more soil is removed, and the channels get deeper. This is known as concentrating the flow and means that, over time the channels grow bigger, the fluid flows faster, and it has a greater potential for erosion.
This also happens when oil and gas start to flow from a reservoir. It is generally not a good thing to allow, since the sand is still in the oil and gas when it reaches the surface and it is expensive to get out – as well as causing the problems I am about to talk about. So to stop it, the well is fitted with a screen when it is first opened. The screen holds the rock particles (sand) in place around the well, slowing if not completely stopping the creation of the channels.
But sometimes, the deposit doesn’t flow very well, the oil may be heavier, or there may be other reasons, and in this case allowing those channels to develop can help production. This technique is known as CHOPS – Cold Heavy Oil Production with Sand. (The report cited is a multi-chapter pdf). The impact of allowing the sand to flow with the oil and gas (to be produced in the terminology) is very significant.
There is thus a very good reason, from the oil in the rock point of view, for the production to have been increasing the way that it has. And for it to increase to the levels that BP are taking precautions to capture. And because they cannot get access to the flow channels to restrain their growth and hold the sand until the relief wells are drilled that increase may well be unavoidable.
Now to the second part of the puzzle, which is what that sand does to the flow passages. The DOE release of some of the documents from BP included pressure measurements at different points along the BOP as taken on the 25th of May.
Because of the erosion, values only exist transiently, so dates become important.
When I cut with an abrasive slurry system, the jet flows through a nozzle that is about 1 mm in diameter (0.04 inches). With a pressure drop of 5,000 psi across the nozzle, that jet, once formed, will cut through casing steel in around 15 seconds. It will cut through ASTM – A108 steel to a depth of over an inch at a traverse speed of 1.5 inches a minute. (Cement is much easier to cut). In this way very small initial openings are very easily made wider, to allow a greater volume flow. (And for those who assert that changing material properties will stop erosion, one of my upcoming papers deals with what happens to diamond.)
The pressures across the BOP don’t show the pressure drops that they did earlier in this disaster. At one time it was reported that the pressure below the BOP was in the 8-9,000 psi range and that above it 2,800 psi with the 2,250 psi pressure being that of the seawater outside the riser. At that time I calculated that a flow of 500 gallons per minute (17,000 bd) would only require a gap in the range of 0.5 to 0.7 inches in effective diameter to allow that flow, at that pressure drop.
The pressure below the BOP is now at 4,400 psi with a pressure drop of around 2,150 psi which will slow the erosion significantly – but not totally. For that pressure drop to have occurred, for the same flow rate, the effective equivalent diameter through the BOP need only increase by 0.1 inches to 0.8 inches, which is not a lot. Were the effective diameter to increase by only another 0.15 inches the flow would increase to 25,000 bd, and if the effective diameter were to double to about 1.7 inches, then the flow would reach the maximum capacity that BP will be able to handle of 80,000 bd. Given the steady erosion that the BOP is seeing, and the fact that a slow erosion rate over time still gets to a large enough diameter, perhaps it is not foolish of BP to bring in that additional capture and storage capacity.
And since a picture sometimes helps, the following picture shows a single ASJ jet at 5,000 psi cutting the walls of the OmniMax Theater under the Gateway Arch in St Louis. We cut the full 15 ft of the new wall exposure with the system (to make the hole for the theater to be put into). The jet flow rate was around 5 gpm.
And this was the cut after a single pass, we were cutting about 18 inches deep on a cut (rock and cement cut a lot easier than metal – though we accidentally ran over a couple of those bolts and cut them right off).
Now you will notice that this says nothing about those ideas such as that propounded by Dougr that the casing has been cracked and oil is escaping into the surrounding rock., and that the casing is becoming a lot weaker. There are two reasons for this, firstly if there was a crack, in the same way as with the BOP, then over time that would have been eaten away as oil, gas and mud flowed through it. Once a flow starts it will rapidly eat out a larger passage, as the above has demonstrated. Once that passage was created then oil flow through it to the surface would make it impossible to see what was going on around the well (look at the cloud above the BOP). In fact there are very clear pictures from under the BOP. This would seem to show that there is no oil leaking there at present.
The other thing to remember is that BP are planning on using the second LMRP cap effectively as a seal on the well. They could not do that if the upper segments of the casing were damaged, and I imagine that they have enough data from the Top Kill testing to reassure themselves of that.
Sense of Events: How bad will the Oil Spill get?
Sense of Events: How bad will the Oil Spill get?
How bad will the Oil Spill get?
By Donald SensingAccording to this oil industry expert, worse than you have ever imagined.
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.And he thinks it will be the well. How much oil could blow into the Gulf if there is a total failure of the wntire wellhead and its seabed substructure? Possibly billions of barrels. That makes listening to the president's address tonight with an analytical ear even more important.
Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.
It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.
We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.
Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.
Sabtu, 05 Juni 2010
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