Minggu, 14 November 2004

Energy a long term view

: "It is therefore inexplicable that some people cling to the Malthusian logic when discussing modern economic issues. Bartlett argues that the conditions of the energy market call for a halt in population growth. Yet no economic data exist to support his claim. Although market dynamics occasionally impact the world economy otherwise, the downward overall trend in the real price of energy indicates faster growth in the supply curve than the demand curve.



In the past decade, energy has been cheaper than in previous decades even as total energy demand has grown to historic highs. Bartlett presents data indicating that world per capita petroleum consumption grew steadily through the period of US energy price regulation in the 1970s and has declined since the Carter administration's deregulation late in that decade. He incorrectly suggests that the data are evidence of production limitations 'as production struggles to keep up with growing demand.' However, his suggestion could only be supported if prices had been rising during the entire period. In fact, the declining price trend during that time is evidence that per capita demand for petroleum was slowing even while supplies were plentiful. Bartlett unwittingly contradicts his own thesis"

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar