Selasa, 17 November 2009

Buy Silver or Gold? by Gary North

Buy Silver or Gold? by Gary North

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witchblade knife of Damocles.

The central banks now face a major problem. If gold’s price gets too high, the private bullion banks will be trapped. They owe gold to central banks, but they cannot afford to buy gold in the private markets in order to repay it to the central banks. If they are ever asked to repay, they will go bankrupt.

The central banks therefore will face exposure as being in collusion with a bunch of profit-seeking Enrons: busted and owing the government’s gold to the central banks. My guess is that central bankers knew from the beginning that they would never see this gold again. They just wanted a cover: "leasing" rather than "sales" of the government’s gold.

The downward pressure on gold is today no longer so great as it was a decade ago. The threat is reduced because the vaults are less full.

No central bank holds silver as a monetary reserve. No central bank is committed to buying or selling silver for public perception reasons. Silver has been de-monetized. It is no longer on the political radar. So, silver is closer to a true free market commodity. It is therefore more subject to the ups and downs of the business cycle.

You can make more money in silver when the market rises: no overhang of leased silver in central ban vaults. You can also lose more money when silver falls, along with the economy: no central bank buying of silver. etc etc

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